Sensationalism

Forbes Wait, Did This 15-Year-Old From Maryland Just Change Cancer Treatment? 18 June 2012

A remarkable achievement for a 15-year-old, although no breakthrough in pancreatic cancer management, for most people do not understand biostatistics. While publication in a scientific journal appears to be pending, various online sources have described Andraka’s invention as “over 90% accurate.” Considering the prevalence of pancreatic cancer at 13.66 per 100000, even 99% sensitivity and specificity results in a positive predictive value is 0.0133 in the early detection setting. In other words, even if such a test says you have pancreatic cancer, there is a 99% chance that you actually don’t have it.

UPDATE: Four years after the article was published, I am finishing specialist training in medical oncology and Andraka’s invention has had zero impact on the management of pancreatic cancer.